Inflation in Belgium, measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), reached 2.2% in December 2025. This represents a significant decrease from the 2.6% recorded in November, marking the lowest point of the year for Belgian inflation. Figures from Eurostat indicate a continuous but irregular downward trend since the peak of 4.4% in early 2025. This development is crucial for Belgian households and the economy as a whole.
What is happening: the decline in inflation in December 2025
The year 2025 began with a substantial inflation rate of 4.4% in January and February. Subsequently, we saw a decline to 3.6% in March and further to 3.1% in April. After a brief rebound, notably in June and September, the figure fluctuated between 2.5% and 2.9%. The most recent drop in December to 2.2% is a welcome development. Sectors such as food and energy, which were previously the main drivers of price increases, are now showing a more moderate trend. This has a direct impact on consumer purchasing power in urban centers like Antwerp and Brussels, as well as in rural areas across Flanders and Wallonia.
Impact on the pivot index and indexation
This downward trend in HICP inflation also has implications for the national pivot index and automatic wage indexation in Belgium. Lower inflation reduces pressure on the pivot index, which in turn can influence the frequency of wage and benefit adjustments. This is particularly relevant for agreements concerning indexation 2026. The adjustment of wages and social benefits is a fundamental characteristic of the Belgian socio-economic model, and inflation developments are a key indicator in this regard. Companies in the industrial sector, as well as small and medium-sized enterprises, closely monitor these figures to align their personnel and cost policies.
Background: economic factors and policies
The decrease in inflation is the result of a combination of factors. On the one hand, we observe a normalisation of energy prices on global markets, after the disruptions of previous years. On the other hand, the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), with a series of interest rate hikes, appears to be bearing fruit by cooling demand. The Belgian government, represented by the federal government and regional entities, has also taken measures to mitigate the impact of high inflation on households, such as energy premiums and VAT reductions on energy. These policies, combined with decreasing tension in global supply chains, contribute to a more stable price environment.
"The inflation figures for December 2025 show a slight easing of price pressure, which is positive for the Belgian economy and citizens' purchasing power, as previously emphasized by Eurostat." - National Bank of Belgium
The Belgian economy is closely monitored by the National Bank of Belgium (NBB) and the Federal Planning Bureau, which analyse the impact of these inflation figures on overall economic stability and competitiveness. Price stabilisation is an important indicator for economic recovery and confidence, and can also lead to more investments.
What it means for Belgium
For Belgian consumers, lower inflation means an increase in real purchasing power. Especially after a period of rapid price increases, price stabilisation is essential to maintain living standards and restore consumer confidence. For businesses, lower costs, particularly for energy and raw materials, can improve profit margins and strengthen their competitive position. This can also lead to further normalisation in the labour market.
The drop in the consumer price index to 2.2% at the end of 2025 is a positive signal for the Belgian economy. Although the path to full price stability may still be uneven, given geopolitical and economic uncertainties, this development creates a foundation for cautious optimism. The coming months will show whether this trend continues sustainably and what further steps Belgian policymakers and the ECB will take to ensure balanced economic growth, with an eye on the expected developments for indexation in 2026 and beyond.