Every first working day of the month, Belgium''s federal statistics office publishes an inflation rate. Days later, Eurostat publishes another. The spread ranges from 0.3 to sometimes more than one full percentage point. Who''s right? Both — they simply don''t measure the same thing.
Four indices, one country
| Index | Source | Basket | Frequency | Official use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI (consumer price index) | Statbel | ~500 items, Belgian weights | Monthly | Basis for the health index |
| Health index | Statbel | CPI excluding tobacco, alcohol, petrol, diesel | Monthly | Wage indexation, social benefits, rents |
| HICP (harmonised) | Eurostat / Statbel | EU-wide COICOP methodology | Monthly | ECB rate decisions, EU comparisons |
| HICP-CT | Eurostat | HICP at constant tax rates | Monthly | Policy analysis (isolates excise) |
Sources: Statbel — Consumer price index and Eurostat — HICP methodology.
Why do Statbel and Eurostat diverge?
Three causes account for most of the spread.
Weights. The Belgian CPI gives owner-occupied housing a heavier weight than the HICP basket. When housing costs run faster than the rest, it drags Statbel''s figure up while leaving Eurostat''s relatively lower.
Imputed-price methodology. Statbel has used supermarket scanner data for fresh products since 2014; Eurostat is only gradually harmonising this across member states. Those few tenths of a point become visible during periods of rapid price movement.
Treatment of energy and transport. The HICP COICOP classification splits sub-categories differently from the national CPI. When an oil shock hits, the impact lands in different months.
Which one drives your salary?
For 3 out of 4 Belgian employees, it''s the health index — not CPI, not HICP. A four-month moving average of the health index is compared against the pivot index (spilindex/indice pivot). Every time the average crosses the pivot, public-sector wages and social benefits are indexed by 2 %; sectoral collective agreements follow their own calendars.
Why "health"? When the law was introduced in 1994, negotiators wanted to prevent excise hikes on tobacco, petrol and diesel from automatically feeding into wages. Those products were removed from the basket — hence the name.
Reference figures are published by the Federal Public Service Employment: see the monthly pivot-index update.
So why does the ECB look at HICP?
The European Central Bank targets a single inflation rate — 2 % over the medium term — for the entire euro area. Comparing 20 economies requires one harmonised methodology; national CPIs would be apples-to-oranges. When commentators say "Belgium is below the euro-area average", they almost always mean Eurostat''s HICP, never Statbel.
The National Bank of Belgium publishes both series side-by-side in its monthly business survey.
As a journalist or economist: which number to cite?
- On Belgian household purchasing power: CPI or health index.
- On wage indexation: health index, always.
- On ECB policy or euro-area comparison: HICP.
- On the tax impact on inflation: HICP-CT.
- On the monthly surprise versus expectations: HICP (what analysts track).
Cite the wrong number and a reader calculates that their salary should rise 3.4 % when the law only mandates 2.8 % — and a debate begins that no one wins.
What BelgiëNu uses
Our macro indicators pull from the Eurostat REST API (HICP), so figures are directly comparable to the rest of the euro area. For pieces on wage indexation we switch to Statbel''s health index with explicit source attribution. Each month we publish the gap between the two, so you don''t have to do the maths.